Key concepts: Existential risk, Longtermism, Worldview Diversification
Bonus concepts: Forecasting, Bayes’ Rule
Description: What risks does humanity face? Should we take the interests of our grandkids' grandkids as seriously as our own? Is the historical period in which we live in “normal”, all things considered? This week, we’ll delve into the issue of existential risks, explore the idea of longtermism, and encounter arguments that we live in unusual times. We will also be presented with defenses for spreading out our altruistic efforts, rather than channeling them all into one cause.
Required readings (114 min.)
The case for reducing existential risk (25 min.) - An overview of risks to humanity’s survival, and why it might be very important to reduce those risks.
The Last Human (video) (13 min.) - YouTube channel Kurzgesagt visualises how truly enormous the future could be.
Longtermism: an introduction (21 min.)
The section “Objections” gets quite technical, so this is not obligatory reading, but feel free to read this part.
The "most important century" blog post series summary (9 min.) - Condensed version arguing that we live in very unusual times, and that current economic and technological trends cannot continue for very much longer.
Worldview Diversification (19 min.) - Argues that we should be putting significant resources behind multiple different worldviews that seem highly plausible, both longtermist and non-longtermist.
Required exercises (15 min.)
Longtermism and calibration exercises (15 min.)
Part 1 only
Recommended
Arguments on both sides of longtermism
Why I find longtermism hard, and what keeps me motivated (10 min.)
Why I am probably not a longtermist (15 min.)
Longtermism and calibration exercises (30 min.)
Part 2 only
"Long-Termism" vs. "Existential Risk" (4 min.) - Argues that “longtermism” is a poor framing - most of the problems longtermists are worried about concern the survival of currently existing people
Top open Metaculus forecasts (3 min.) - The most popular questions on the prediction aggregation website Metaculus
AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the "Experts", Stand (15 min.)
Bayes’ Rule (guide) (20 min.) - Explains how a formula from probability theory can guide how to respond to new evidence
Criticism:
Why I am probably not a longtermist (15 min.)
Against longtermism (26 mins), or for a more extensive treatment Were the Great Tragedies of History “Mere Ripples”? The Case Against Longtermism (43 min.)
The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism (75 min.)
The Washout Argument Against Longtermism (29 min.)
Write down your reflections on the readings and exercise(s) in the box below
Some prompts:
Do you think applying the ITN framework to existential risk suggests that it is a cause area worth focusing on?
Should we care about people far in the future?
If so, how should we weigh their interests relative to currently living people?